A Neural Substrate of Prediction and Reward
Wolfram Schultz   Peter Dayan   P Read
Science, 275 :1593-1599.
The capacity to predict future events permits a creature to detect,
model, and manipulate the causal structure of its interactions with
its environment. Behavioral experiments suggest that learning is
driven by changes in the expectations about future salient events such
as rewards and punishments. Physiological work has recently
complemented these studies by identifying dopaminergic neurons in the
primate whose fluctuating output apparently signals changes or errors
in the predictions of future salient and rewarding events. Taken
together, these findings can be understood through quantitative
theories of adaptive optimizing control.